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Blueprint Seller
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Posted - 2011.05.01 11:39:00 -
[1]
 Originally by: Edwin Rothbard
To date Rothbard's has over 1,300 registered players and gross deposits totaling 330,166,214,126.28 ISK.
Where are these deposits currently held?
Originally by: Edwin Rothbard
The casino has been cash positive each of the 17 weeks since it opened. Over its lifetime the casino has generated a net profit of 1.15 billion ISK per day. To date the casino has net profits in excess of 141 billion ISK. Daily profits are growing steadily.
Do you have more detailed historical figures? Can those be made public?
Originally by: Edwin Rothbard
A 3rd party audit would just confirm information that I've already made publicly available.
The chief objective of a 3rd party audit is to confirm claims made by the auditee.
I do not understand why the words "would just confirm" appear in this quote rather than the words "has confirmed" or "will shortly confirm". Can you please explain this further?
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Blueprint Seller
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Posted - 2011.05.01 12:03:00 -
[2]
Originally by: Edwin Rothbard
Rothbard's is running on 0b in public funds
Originally by: Edwin Rothbard
To date Rothbard's has over 1,300 registered players and gross deposits totaling 330,166,214,126.28 ISK.
These two quotes appear to contradict eachother. Can you please clarify?
Originally by: Edwin Rothbard
The casino has a long-term mathematical edge on the games
Can you provide figures? What are your theoretical and historical payout percentages?
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Blueprint Seller
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Posted - 2011.05.01 13:19:00 -
[3]
Thank you for your answers so far.
I understand that you and I have a difference of opinion about what constitutes public funds. I will not labour the point as you have provided the information I was seeking.
Can you provide historical and maximum figures for your player account balance? That is to say the historical total of public money you have held within the casino and the maximum level that has reached?
Can you also provide the historical and maximum figures for your loan business?
Originally by: Edwin Rothbard
Originally by: Blueprint Seller
Can you provide figures? What are your theoretical and historical payout percentages?
You don't seem to understand how a casino operates. Has no one here ever been to Las Vegas? 330b is how much players have deposited total. They have lost 143b of that 330b. That's 143b is my profit. Of the the money they didn't lose I hold about 2b of that in the player accounts. The remainder of the money has been cashed out of the casino in the form of isk and/or prizes.
I have a degree in mathematics; that's my qualification. The EV for the games is nearly spot on with the actual values. The house edge on blacjkack, for example, is 0.15% for a player who uses basic strategy and declines insurance. I have automated reports that check actual vs expected for each of the games. They are working as intended.
I am not seeking clarification on whether I understand how a casino operates.
Will you be able to provide me with the percentages I requested?
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Blueprint Seller
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Posted - 2011.05.01 13:51:00 -
[4]
Originally by: Edwin Rothbard
From my understanding the API can only pull wallet entries back a couple of weeks. Thus there's no way for an auditor to confirm or deny the first 15 weeks of my data.
I understand the limited window provided by the API. I would still like to know what is contained within that window.
Originally by: Edwin Rothbard
It would show, however, exactly what I have in my wallet. You can already see this though on my eve board profile. Yesterday morning I had roughly 117b isk in my wallet. An auditor isn't going to add anything on that issue.
If you are running a business that involves money going back and forth then the auditor will be able to confirm that within the limits of what is possible with the API.
Originally by: Edwin Rothbard
My wallet is page after page after of player to player deposits and cashouts every single day.
Excellent. I would like to see this confirmed to the limit of what is possible with the API.
Originally by: Edwin Rothbard
The trolls will never accept those are proceeds from the casino. After an auditor confirmed that there are various wallet transactions the trolls would just then say "BUT HOW WE KNOW THOSE AREN'T HIS ALTS??????" It's an argument I cannot win.
I am not concerned about any argument you may or may not be winning with "the trolls". Your API contains information and that information will either be consistent with what I would expect to see from a running casino or it will not.
Originally by: Edwin Rothbard
No doubt some idiot like RAW23 would conclude just that.
Originally by: Edwin Rothbard
I noticed BB made an appearance in this thread. Maybe ask him how solid of a scam idea that is since he's an expert on the subject.
I do not really care what either of these people think unless they have your API key.
Originally by: Edwin Rothbard
There's already a huge amount of due diligence the public can perform.
I agree. Asking these questions is a key part of that.
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Blueprint Seller
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Posted - 2011.05.01 16:17:00 -
[5]
Originally by: Edwin Rothbard
Originally by: Blueprint Seller
I understand that you and I have a difference of opinion about what constitutes public funds.
If a player deposits money it goes into their casino account it is still their money. I am merely holding it for them. If they then wager that money at the blackjack tables and lose it's now my money. It's no longer public funds if they wager and lose.
So what is their money in the period after it leaves their wallet and enters yours but before they wager it?
Originally by: Edwin Rothbard
Rothbard's is running on 0b in public funds
How does that match up with this quote?
Originally by: Edwin Rothbard
Originally by: Blueprint Seller
Can you provide historical and maximum figures for your player account balance? That is to say the historical total of public money you have held within the casino and the maximum level that has reached?
My guess is that intraday there have been times where the balance has been maybe as high as 5b or so. That figure varies a lot especially at busy times of the day and even more so if there are a number high stakes players at the tables.
Is that a yes or a no? Do you have these figures? Are you willing to provide them?
Originally by: Edwin Rothbard
Originally by: Blueprint Seller
Can you also provide the historical and maximum figures for your loan business?
I think the most i've had out concurrently for loans is approx 3b. To be clear that was me lending other pilots 3b isk spread across a number of collateralized loans. My loans are over collateralized as I only deal with high quality collateral and I only offer 75% LTV. I have never had a default.
Is that a yes or a no? Do you have these figures? Are you willing to provide them?
Originally by: Edwin Rothbard
Originally by: Blueprint Seller
What are your theoretical and historical payout percentages?
I guess this question is not at all clear to me. Do you want the EV vs actual value for each of the games with a breakdown for each?
I would like the payout percentages. Isk paid out in prizes divided by isk wagered expressed as a percentage. I would like it broken down per game type with both your theoretical values and the actual historical values for the period the casino has been operating.
Originally by: Edwin Rothbard
I've already stated that it's working as intended. Can you explain why it is you need this data beyond what i've already provided?
Because it will go some way to telling me if you are capable of running a profitable casino over a long period of time. At the moment all I know is that you have been running a casino for a few months. I do not know if it has been profitable because there is no available data. I cannot even guess if it will be profitable for the lifespan of the investment because there is no available data.
The only number I have that is in any way verified is your wallet balance. That wallet balance causes me more issues because I am not sure why you have it. What is the function of having 100b+ in your wallet? The function it is being used for at the moment is to help you sell shares in your casino. Surely you can see where this would lead me?
I can accept the limitations of the data you have available to you. I can accept the limitations of the data available from the API. So do you have these figures? Do you have any figures? Are you willing to provide them?
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Blueprint Seller
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Posted - 2011.05.01 17:01:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Edwin Rothbard
At this point Blueprint Seller it's clear that you have signifcant trust concerns about my IPO. I do not believe that i'm going to be able to answer your questions to your satisfaction.
Please try.
Originally by: Edwin Rothbard
I see that you are getting to the point of just wanting to split hairs. I already aknowledged that the 2b in player accounts that I hold in my wallet should be counted as a liability. You want to beat a dead horse. I'm not interested in such a debate.
That was a point that I myself said was not worth labouring.
Originally by: Edwin Rothbard
Maybe in 6 months with continued revenue growth and timely dividend payments you will feel more comfortable. Maybe not.
Will you be willing to answer my questions and provide figures in 6 months time?
Originally by: Edwin Rothbard
I've done my best to answer your questions, but there's not much more I can add.
You have left many of them unanswered. Many of them only required a yes or no response. Are you sure that is the best you can do?
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Blueprint Seller
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Posted - 2011.05.02 09:11:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Syds Sinclair
Now onto the what I consider to be the real beef with your offering.
Motive.
I approached this offering on the basis that the ultimate motive was to sell on the business to a new operator once a high price for the shares had been established in the secondary market.
I therefore began asking the kind of questions I would ask if I was purchasing the entire business. I asked to see the books.
Having received a very negative response I concluded that it was impossible to know if the business was in a fit state to be sold and therefore I had no choice but to write it off as a viable investment. |
Blueprint Seller
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Posted - 2011.05.02 09:41:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Syds Sinclair
..I'm too tired and just wrote a few long winded posts, so I'll keep it simple: Assuming that the ultimate motive was to sell the business was your first mistake. Ignoring answers and being argumentative/hard headed was your second.
I did not assume the ultimate motive was to sell the business. I approached the offering on that basis.
I also did not ignore any of the answers given.
I will accept that I was argumentative. But I feel that is a perfectly viable approach.
I am not sure how you come to the conclusion that any of these things were mistakes given the outcome.
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Blueprint Seller
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Posted - 2011.05.02 11:18:00 -
[9]
Originally by: xKillswitchx
My only question to your post is why would you need investors? You said your casino is turning over 1 Bil isk per day profit, then why would you need any additional capital?? You should be turning a 30 Bil profit per month and I don't know that raising additional capital is really going to increase that monthly profit margin.
Not saying that this is a scam or anything, just wondering why such a successful business would need to raise additional capital when you are probably sitting on 100+ Billion isk at the moment.
If Edwin sells some shares at 100m per share then following one method of valuation his business is worth:
100m x 10,000 shares = 1,000,000m
If the secondary market begins to trade those shares at a premium then using the same method of valuation his business is worth:
1,000,000m + ( premium x 10,000)
If Edwin wishes to sell his operation on to a new owner then such a valuation will be a viable starting point for price negotiatons.
He will get less than the final valuation for this set of shares but it is worth it in the longer term.
Debate on if this method of valuation is valid is a seperate topic. Even if you believe that method to be totally wrong it still gives Edwin an additional position to negotiate from.
If Edwin was to sell on this business for 1.5t isk in six months time he would not only be a very rich man but he would secure a place for himself in EVE history.
This is why I took this as the basis for my initial examination of this offering. I am not excluding other motives and outcomes but this one is the one that made for the most interesting analysis.
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Blueprint Seller
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Posted - 2011.05.02 11:45:00 -
[10]
Originally by: RAW23
This being the case, good returns for investors are almost entirely predicated on you selling the business for something close to your 1 trillion isk valuation.
That depends on what you consider to be good returns.
In my view good returns for long term investors are almost entirely predicated on Edwin selling the business for considerably more than the 1t isk valuation.
For short term investors good returns can be gained by selling the shares at a premium. This outcome is equally predicated on the belief that Edwin will sell the business for considerably more than the 1t isk valuation.
This is why I was left cold by the lack of available figures. Without them a lucrative sale seems unlikely.
I do not believe that simply delivering escalating dividends will be sufficient to convince a buyer. Dividends without supporting figures will appear to be cooked.
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Blueprint Seller
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Posted - 2011.05.02 15:16:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Edwin Rothbard
Please understand it doesn't matter what numbers I give you from the casino operations. Any of them could potentially be fabricated. Hence even if I released them it would not resolve the complaints. The only thing that can be verified without tampering would be my wallet transactions for which only the most recent two weeks are available.
My daily wallet history is listed on Eve board for the entire time the casino has been in operation. Those numbers are API veried and still people doubt them so adding 2 weeks of wallet transactions to the mix isn't going to satisfy anyone who already doubts the numbers.
You keep telling me that the figures I am asking for are of no use to me. I disagree.
If you give me the figures then I can look at them from two perspectives.
I can first treat them as genuine and assess whether they suggest your casino is well run and has a healthy future. If they do not support that then it really does not matter if they are fabricated or not because if even your fabricated figures do not show a good business then I might as well assume that your genuine figures are no better. Fabricating good figures does at least require the understanding of what good figures are which is a step ahead of what many EVE players are capable of. If your figures are good then regardless of whether they are fabricated or genuine you have at least crossed the first fence.
I can then treat them as suspect and assess whether there are any elements of the figures that support the conclusion that they are fabricated. Perfectly fabricating good figures is an even more difficult challenge for the average person.
If we come to the conclusion that your figures show a good business and there are no tell tale signs of ham fisted fabrication then we would at least be a thousand miles closer to our destination than at present.
I am simply asking for the oppertunity to make my own assesment of the data that exists. I am not asking for data that does not exist. I am not asking for the data to prove things it cannot. I am purely concerned with what is possible with what is available.
In the longer term you need to make your API available to a number of independent auditors so that your future figures can be authenticated on an ongoing basis. Then this question of doubt that you insist on wielding as a defence can be reduced to a more tolerable level.
I undestand that to many this level of book keeping and auditing may seem silly in a computer game but I would point to the fact that you wish to emulate a powerhouse businessman while running a large and massively profitable enterprise. That is not a trivial aspiration and some level of book keeping and auditing even at the amateurish standard that can be expected within a computer game is not an unreasonable requirement.
Unfortunately due to your handling of this discussion so far you have promoted greater concerns than the existinence, content and authenticity of your figures.
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Blueprint Seller
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Posted - 2011.05.02 18:48:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Syds Sinclair
Originally by: Blueprint Seller
Originally by: Edwin Rothbard
..No, you can't look at my figures..
..I want to look at your figures!..
..Blueprint Seller, are you in any financial position to even think about buying the casino? Any reputation position to get a loan to buy the casino?
My line of questioning was more to do with how saleable the casino is in general. It is far too early for me to have considered actually buying it.
I do not see why my financial circumstances are particularly relevant to this discussion but I will answer your questions briefly.
Yes. I am in a financial position to consider a purchase such as this.
No. I could not get a loan on that scale based on reputation. I think far too many people in this forum use reputation in place of security. If I wish to get a loan for this or any other reason I would provide collateral.
There are far too few things for a wealthy eve player to invest in on this scale. How many sizeable businesses have you seen traded in EVE? One stop research springs to mind but even that was fairly small. It is almost a foreign concept. I find I generally have to approach business owners to suggest the idea and many of them had not even considered the possibility. It is certainly something I would like to see more of.
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